TY - BOOK AU - Sornette,Didier AU - Sornette,Didier TI - Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems T2 - Princeton Science Library SN - 9780691175959 AV - HB3722 .S66 2017 U1 - 332.63222 23 PY - 2017///] CY - Princeton, NJ : PB - Princeton University Press, KW - Complexity (Philosophy) KW - Critical phenomena (Physics) KW - Financial crises KW - United States KW - History KW - Stock exchanges KW - Stocks KW - Prices KW - BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Investments & Securities / Stocks KW - bisacsh KW - Asia KW - Black Monday KW - Dow Jones Industrial Average KW - Hong Kong KW - Latin America KW - Louis Bachelier KW - Nasdaq index KW - Nasdaq KW - Nikkei KW - Russia KW - South Sea bubble KW - anti-imitation KW - antibubble KW - arbitrage opportunities KW - bubble KW - collapse KW - complex systems KW - computational methods KW - cooperative behavior KW - cooperative speculation KW - crash hazard KW - currency crash KW - derivatives KW - discrete scale invariance KW - drawdown KW - efficient market KW - emergent markets KW - extreme events KW - financial crashes KW - finite-time singularity KW - forward prediction KW - fractals KW - free lunch KW - gold KW - hazard rate KW - hedging KW - herding KW - imitation KW - insurance portfolio KW - log-periodicity KW - market failure KW - natural scientists KW - outlier KW - population dynamics KW - positive feedback KW - power law KW - prediction KW - price-driven model KW - random walk KW - rational agent KW - renormalization group KW - returns KW - risk-driven model KW - risk KW - self-organization KW - self-similarity KW - social network KW - social scientists KW - speculative bubble KW - stock market crash KW - stock market indices KW - stock market prices KW - stock market KW - superhumans KW - sustainability KW - tronics boom KW - tulip mania KW - world economy N1 - Frontmatter --; Contents --; Preface to the Princeton Science Library Edition --; Preface to the 2002 Edition --; Chapter 1. Financial Crashes: What, How, Why, and When? --; Chapter 2. Fundamentals of Financial Markets --; Chapter 3. Financial Crashes Are "Outliers" --; Chapter 4. Positive Feedbacks --; Chapter 5. Modeling Financial Bubbles and Market Crashes --; Chapter 6. Hierarchies, Complex Fractal Dimensions, and Log-Periodicity --; Chapter 7. Autopsy of Major Crashes: Universal Exponents and Log-Periodicity --; Chapter 8. Bubbles, Crises, and Crashes in Emergent Markets --; Chapter 9. Prediction of Bubbles, Crashes, and Antibubbles --; Chapter 10. 2050: The End of the Growth Era? --; References --; Index; restricted access; Issued also in print N2 - The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets UR - https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400885091?locatt=mode:legacy UR - https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781400885091 UR - https://www.degruyter.com/cover/covers/9781400885091.jpg ER -