TY  - BOOK
AU  - Turchin,Peter
TI  - Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall 
T2  - Princeton Studies in Complexity
SN  - 9780691180779
AV  - D16.13 
U1  - 901.13 23
PY  - 2018///]
CY  - Princeton, NJ
PB  - Princeton University Press
KW  - Historiometry
KW  - History
KW  - Mathematical models
KW  - HISTORY / Historiography
KW  - bisacsh
KW  - Asia Minor
KW  - Black Death
KW  - English Revolution
KW  - Europe
KW  - France
KW  - Russia
KW  - agrarian polities
KW  - asabiya
KW  - autocatalytic model
KW  - boom–bust dynamics
KW  - boundless growth
KW  - class structure
KW  - cliodynamics
KW  - collective solidarity
KW  - collectivism
KW  - commoners
KW  - conflict legitimacy dynamics
KW  - cultural regions
KW  - demographic-fiscal model
KW  - demographic-structural theory
KW  - dynamical processes
KW  - elites
KW  - empires
KW  - endogenous systems
KW  - equilibrium
KW  - ethnic assimilation
KW  - ethnic identity
KW  - ethnies
KW  - ethnogenesis
KW  - ethnokinetic model
KW  - ethnokinetics
KW  - frontier index
KW  - frontiers
KW  - geopolitics
KW  - group dynamics
KW  - group solidarity
KW  - hierarchical modeling
KW  - historical dynamics
KW  - historical sociology
KW  - imperial boundaries
KW  - individualism
KW  - internal warfare
KW  - linguistic assimilation
KW  - marchland position
KW  - mathematical modeling
KW  - mathematical models
KW  - mathematical theory
KW  - metaethnic fault lines
KW  - metaethnic frontier theory
KW  - metaethnic frontiers
KW  - metaethnie
KW  - metastable dynamics
KW  - noninteractive model
KW  - nonlinear dynamics
KW  - political cycles
KW  - political instability
KW  - polity dynamics
KW  - population density
KW  - population dynamics
KW  - population numbers
KW  - population oscillations
KW  - primary data
KW  - process order
KW  - quantitative theories
KW  - religious conversion
KW  - secondary data
KW  - secular cycles
KW  - secular oscillations
KW  - social capital
KW  - socioeconomic dynamics
KW  - sociopolitical stability
KW  - state breakdown
KW  - sustained oscillations
KW  - territorial dynamics
KW  - threshold model
KW  - vulnerability
N1  - Frontmatter --; Contents --; List of Figures --; List of Tables --; Preface --; Chapter One. Statement of the Problem --; Chapter Two. Geopolitics --; Chapter Three. Collective Solidarity --; Chapter Four. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory --; Chapter Five. An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory --; Chapter Six. Ethnokinetics --; Chapter Seven. The Demographic-Structural Theory --; Chapter Eight. Secular Cycles in Population Numbers --; Chapter Nine. Case Studies --; Chapter Ten. Conclusion --; Appendix A. Mathematical Appendix --; Appendix B. Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory --; Bibliography --; Index; restricted access
N2  - Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400889310?locatt=mode:legacy
UR  - https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781400889310
UR  - https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9781400889310/original
ER  -